Caution on the Slowdown Cycle in Banking Industry

Angga Bratadharma    •    Rabu, 01 Jul 2015 14:23 WIB
Caution on the Slowdown Cycle in Banking Industry
Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (IDIC/LPS) . MI / Himanda Amrullah, Jakarta: Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (IDIC/LPS) revealed that even under the shadows of the potential Feds Fund Rate increase, the liquidity risk at the moment is no longer the main problem in Indonesian banking industry. However, the industry should be cautious of the slowdown cycle phases.

Based on the report of stability analysis and banking system of the second quarter of 2015, as quoted from IDIC webpage, Tuesday (6/30/2015), the third party funds (DPK) had grown above 16 percent over the credit growth of 11.2 percent during the first quarter of 2015. As the result, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) experienced a decline from 90.1 percent at the end of 2014 to 88.4 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2015.

The improvement of banking liquidity condition was also shown by the stability of deposit interest rate. The fixed deposit interest rate of IDIC referred banks (market interest rate/SBP) during the first quarter had risen to 11 bps, if compared to 17 bps within the same period last year. Since the beginning of April, SBP has declined as many as 11 bps.

Aside from that, the report also revealed that the condition of credit growth under the DPK growth is estimated to remain until the end of 2015. There is a dynamic pattern where credit growth will experience an acceleration towards the beginning of semester, as well as the controlled pressure on liquidity.

Meanwhile the dynamic movement pattern of DPK growth will reach its peak by the end of third and fourth quarters. Even then, IDIC sees that for 2015, it would be different than the previous year's, where the acceleration would most likely be below the historic levels.

It can be referred that 2015 is a different year compared to the previous years. Banking industry had been enjoying the good economic growth for the past five years. Currently, it is time to observe the slowdown cycle phase, as the banking industry started to experience. (Eps)


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